How important are niche behaviours? If you’re a politician, the answer is very important. Keir Starmer sparked controversy by introducing VAT on private schools, where only 7% of children are educated. Across the pond, the 2011 Occupy Wall Street movement targeted the wealthiest 1% of Americans. 

But the same isn’t true in quantitative research, where bigger is always better. Whether it’s product tests, adverts or consumer motivations, the focus is always on the highest percentage and not the 1% – especially given the emphasis put on beating benchmarks.

To be clear, this thinking makes sense in certain situations – such as mass market message testing – but it’s unhelpful when applied too broadly. By shunning small numbers, brands are missing out on potential opportunities to innovate and unlock extra revenue.

Growth at the fringes
Why are small numbers more interesting than they seem? Firstly, they underplay real world figures. Keep in mind that 1% of adults equates to 500,000 in the UK, and 2.6 million in the US.

Secondly, raw numbers don’t describe the feelings behind them. 500,000 people trying a product once, on a whim, is very different from 500,000 super fans using it every day. And thirdly, small numbers are interesting precisely because the competition aren’t looking for them. Why pick a concept with 1% appeal when another has 50%?

But look around and you’ll see lots of successful innovation that appeals to a tiny (and fervent) fraction of the population.

For instance, YouGov data suggests that only 3% of adults have been in polyamorous relationships. Yet the user base of Feeld, an online app for ‘alternative dating’, is growing 30% year on year.

Similarly the Lawn Tennis Association estimates that 200,000 people play padel in the UK: less than 0.5% of adults. But padel clubs are consistently full, with waiting lists in the hundreds, and the existing 350 courts aren’t enough to satisfy overall demand.

Finally, consider the most notorious trend of the last decade: veganism. It might surprise you to hear that it’s still niche – only 3% of Brits are vegan – but that hasn’t stopped a range of retailers capitalising on it. Greggs’ sausage roll was its fastest selling product in recent years, helping the company achieve consistent double digit growth.

None of these behaviours would typically register in quant research – more likely dismissed as rounding errors – but they show that low percentages can lead to significant success.

How to think small
Above all, researchers need to be more receptive to – and curious about – small numbers. But there are three specific tricks to help them identify potential opportunities.

1 ) Look for passion points
Pay attention to behaviours that are linked to a strong identity, belief or emotion – even if the numbers seem trivial. This increases the chances consumers will love a new product, use it often, and tell others about it. As investor Paul Graham puts it, “it’s better to have 100 customers that love you than a million customers that just sort of like you”.

In the highly-charged world of dating, Feeld was the first app to cater to polygamous couples. In fact it was created out of personal frustration: the founder was in the early stages of a relationship with a man when she realised she had feelings for another woman. Now Feeld is serving this (albeit small) group very effectively.

2 ) Go for growth
Even if a behaviour lacks popularity, consider its trajectory over time: fast growth can turn a niche activity mainstream.

As mentioned, only 200,000 people play padel in the UK (as of 2024 ) – but that’s up from 6,000 in 2020. The LTA forecasts there will be 600,000 players by the end of 2026, which would make it more popular than basketball ( 300,000 ) and almost on a par with badminton ( 700,000 ).

Suddenly that’s a massive audience – and opportunity – for racket manufacturers, coaching providers and apps like Playtomic (which allow players to book courts). Going further, could Netflix repeat its Drive to Survive glory with a documentary about the Padel World Championship?

3 ) Consider the crossover 
The worldwide vegan industry is valued at $22bn, but that’s not solely down to vegans. In fact 92% of vegan meals are eaten by non-vegans who want to reduce their meat and dairy intake.

When assessing a marginal behaviour it’s helpful to ask: could other people adopt this for a different reason, or less intensely?

In these cases, it’s also worth thinking about the framing of the product. Given the not so positive associations with the word ‘vegan’, Quorn made the smart decision to rebrand as a ‘healthy food’ company – famously partnering with openly meat-eating Mo Farah – and massively expanding its audience in the process.

Staying curious
The focus on big numbers will only intensify as data becomes more accessible. When there is so much to analyse, no researcher will get in trouble for dismissing the concept test with 1% preference.

That 1% could hold the key to untapped potential: a fast growing and passionate user base, whose needs are desperately underserved. But it’s only by questioning the 1% – not dismissing it – that you’ll figure it out.

Sam Salama is a quantitative associate director