Warc’s forecasts, part of its Platform Insights series, said that Facebook was on track to reach $112.8bn in revenue from advertising by 2026, which would make it the second media firm, after Google in 2020, to exceed $100bn in global advertising revenue.

While Meta does not split revenue by platform, Warc Media said its forecasts showed that Facebook’s third quarter 2024 advertising revenue grew 13.2% year-on-year, albeit slower than its parent company Meta ( 19%). 

However, Warc said that Facebook’s share of the global social market is dwindling. In 2013, almost nine in 10 social advertising dollars went to Facebook ( 88.9%), whereas by 2025, advertising spend on Facebook will have halved to 38.2%, with Instagram and TikTok catching up. 

In the US, advertising spend on Facebook is set to grow to $39.5bn in 2024, up 11.6% year-on-year, but advertising revenue growth will slow substantially in 2025 and 2026, according to per Warc Media.

This is in contrast to Instagram, which is expected to achieve nearly 20% growth over the next two years.

Warc said Facebook’s revival since 2022 has been fuelled by Asia-Pacific advertisers targeting Western consumers, alongside the fruits of AI innovation and a pivot away from targeting in favour of outcomes.

To attract a new Gen Z audience for long-term growth, Facebook is also prioritising creators, groups (for communities and information), long-form video (such as Stories and Reels) and moving away from news and political content.