The study found that global ad spend is expected to grow 10.7% in 2024 to a total of $1.98tn, equivalent to an additional $104bn in investment from advertisers.

If this is reached, it would be the first time ad spend had surpassed $1tn and would indicate the strongest growth rate in six years, according to Warc’s analysis.

The headline growth rate is mostly driven by spend on online media, according to Warc, but linear TV spend has also performed well in 2024 and is expected to end the year 1.9% higher year-on-year, following two years of decline. Warc attributed this boost to political advertising, the Paris Olympics and Euro 2024.

Spend on pure play internet, which encompasses advertising revenue among online-only businesses including Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, is set to grow by 14.1% to a total of $741.4bn – representing over two thirds ( 68.8%) of all ad spend.

Advertisers globally are expected to spend a total of $299.2bn during the final quarter of the year, a 10.2% rise from the previous year, up marginally (+0.2pp) from Warc’s last forecast, released in August.

The fourth quarter of the year typically accounts for over 30% of retailers’ annual spend. According to the study, retailers are expected to spend $45.6bn on advertising during Q4 2024, up 5.0% compared to last year.

James McDonald, director of data, intelligence and forecasting, Warc, and author of the research, said: "Our latest forecast anticipates $104bn in incremental advertising spend worldwide this year, the largest rise in history if the post-pandemic recovery year of 2021 were discounted. 

“Whether this boom will sustain remains unclear, however, as 2025 presents a sliding doors moment due to heightened regulatory pressures on Google and TikTok – together a quarter of the ad market outside of China. This, alongside an increasingly challenging geopolitical climate, may spell uncertain times ahead for the businesses that rely on advertising trade.”